March 2026 PCE Above 2.8%
YES if the March 2026 headline PCE inflation rate exceeds 2.8% year-over-year.
41% implied probability
59% implied probability
Volume
$5.4K
Open Interest
$234K
Traders
18
41%
59%
Resolution Rules
How this market will be settled
Resolution Rule
Resolves YES if the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports March 2026 Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index year-over-year change strictly greater than 2.8%. Exactly 2.8% resolves NO.
Fallback / Invalid
If the March 2026 PCE data release is delayed beyond May 15, 2026, market resolves invalid.
Resolution Source
Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE Release — bea.gov
Trading Deadline
Apr 30, 2026
Market Context
Inflation markets key off CPI, PCE, and producer price nowcasts. Base effects, shelter components, and core services ex-housing are the typical drivers. Liquidity spikes in the final week as weekly gasoline data and wage indicators firm up expectations.
Recent Activity
Position opened
$18K on NO at $0.57
Resolution source update
Official data release confirmed
Position opened
$35K on NO at $0.58
Liquidity milestone
Market crossed 1,000 unique traders
Place Order
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Place Order
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