March 2026 Core PCE Above 3.0%
YES if the March 2026 core PCE inflation rate exceeds 3.0% year-over-year.
35% implied probability
65% implied probability
Volume
$432K
Open Interest
$234K
Traders
1,543
35%
65%
Resolution Rules
How this market will be settled
Resolution Rule
Resolves YES if the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports March 2026 Core PCE (excluding food and energy) year-over-year change strictly greater than 3.0%. Exactly 3.0% resolves NO.
Fallback / Invalid
If the March 2026 PCE data release is delayed beyond May 15, 2026, market resolves invalid.
Resolution Source
Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE Release — bea.gov
Trading Deadline
Apr 30, 2026
Market Context
Inflation markets key off CPI, PCE, and producer price nowcasts. Base effects, shelter components, and core services ex-housing are the typical drivers. Liquidity spikes in the final week as weekly gasoline data and wage indicators firm up expectations.
Recent Activity
Position opened
$18K on NO at 63¢
Resolution source update
Official data release confirmed
Position opened
$35K on NO at 64¢
Liquidity milestone
Market crossed 1,000 unique traders
Place Order
Market OrderConnect wallet to execute trade