April 2026 Core CPI Above 2.6%
YES if the April 2026 core CPI exceeds 2.6% year-over-year.
52% implied probability
48% implied probability
Volume
$654K
Open Interest
$234K
Traders
2,187
52%
48%
Resolution Rules
How this market will be settled
Resolution Rule
Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports April 2026 Core CPI (excluding food and energy) year-over-year change strictly greater than 2.6%. Exactly 2.6% resolves NO.
Fallback / Invalid
If the April 2026 CPI release is delayed beyond May 27, 2026, market resolves invalid.
Resolution Source
Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Release — bls.gov
Trading Deadline
May 13, 2026
Market Context
Inflation markets key off CPI, PCE, and producer price nowcasts. Base effects, shelter components, and core services ex-housing are the typical drivers. Liquidity spikes in the final week as weekly gasoline data and wage indicators firm up expectations.
Recent Activity
Position opened
$25K on YES at 50¢
Resolution source update
Official data release confirmed
Position opened
$8K on YES at 51¢
Liquidity milestone
Market crossed 1,000 unique traders
Place Order
Market OrderConnect wallet to execute trade