MarketsInflationApril 2026 Core CPI Above 2.6%
InflationEnds May 13, 2026

April 2026 Core CPI Above 2.6%

YES if the April 2026 core CPI exceeds 2.6% year-over-year.

YesFavored
52¢

52% implied probability

+3¢
No
48¢

48% implied probability

-3¢

Volume

$654K

Open Interest

$234K

Traders

2,187

Yes
+13¢

52%

No

48%

24h High52%
24h Low46%
Updated continuously

Resolution Rules

How this market will be settled

Resolution Rule

Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports April 2026 Core CPI (excluding food and energy) year-over-year change strictly greater than 2.6%. Exactly 2.6% resolves NO.

Fallback / Invalid

If the April 2026 CPI release is delayed beyond May 27, 2026, market resolves invalid.

Resolution Source

Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Release — bls.gov

Trading Deadline

May 13, 2026

View complete resolution rules

Market Context

Inflation

Inflation markets key off CPI, PCE, and producer price nowcasts. Base effects, shelter components, and core services ex-housing are the typical drivers. Liquidity spikes in the final week as weekly gasoline data and wage indicators firm up expectations.

Recent Activity

Position opened

$25K on YES at 50¢

1h ago

Resolution source update

Official data release confirmed

22h ago

Position opened

$8K on YES at 51¢

10h ago

Liquidity milestone

Market crossed 1,000 unique traders

1d ago