April 2026 Unemployment Above 4.3%

YES if the U.S. unemployment rate rises above 4.3% in April 2026.

Yes

27¢

27% implied probability

+3¢

NoFavored

73¢

73% implied probability

-3¢

Volume

$445K

Open Interest

$234K

Traders

1,654

Yes

+11¢

27%

73%

24h High52%

24h Low46%

Updated continuously

Resolution Rules

How this market will be settled

Resolution Rule

Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the April 2026 U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted) strictly greater than 4.3%. Exactly 4.3% resolves NO.

Fallback / Invalid

Resolution based on initial release only. If release is delayed beyond May 22, 2026, market resolves invalid.

Resolution Source

Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation — bls.gov

Trading Deadline

May 8, 2026

View complete resolution rules

Market Context

Employment

Payroll markets are among the most volatile in the protocol — ADP, initial claims, and JOLTS all feed into the final NFP print. Expect two-sided risk: surprise strength and weakness both have been heavily monetized in prior cycles.