April 2026 Unemployment Above 4.3%

YES if the U.S. unemployment rate rises above 4.3% in April 2026.

Yes

$0.27

27% implied probability

+$0.03

NoFavored

$0.73

73% implied probability

-$0.03

Volume

$4.4K

Open Interest

$234K

Traders

Yes

+$0.12

27%

73%

High27%

Low20%

Updated continuously

Resolution Rules

How this market will be settled

Resolution Rule

Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the April 2026 U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted) strictly greater than 4.3%. Exactly 4.3% resolves NO.

Fallback / Invalid

Resolution based on initial release only. If release is delayed beyond May 22, 2026, market resolves invalid.

Resolution Source

Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation — bls.gov

Trading Deadline

May 8, 2026

View complete resolution rules

Market Context

Employment

Payroll markets are among the most volatile in the protocol — ADP, initial claims, and JOLTS all feed into the final NFP print. Expect two-sided risk: surprise strength and weakness both have been heavily monetized in prior cycles.