April 2026 Payrolls Beat 200K

YES if U.S. April 2026 nonfarm payrolls increase by more than 200,000 jobs.

Yes

$0.34

34% implied probability

+$0.03

NoFavored

$0.66

66% implied probability

-$0.03

Volume

$5.6K

Open Interest

$234K

Traders

Yes

+$0.15

34%

66%

High34%

Low21%

Updated continuously

Resolution Rules

How this market will be settled

Resolution Rule

Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics initial release for April 2026 total nonfarm payrolls shows a monthly increase strictly greater than 200,000. Exactly 200,000 resolves NO.

Fallback / Invalid

Resolution based on initial release only, not revisions. If release is delayed beyond May 22, 2026, market resolves invalid.

Resolution Source

Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation — bls.gov

Trading Deadline

May 8, 2026

View complete resolution rules

Market Context

Employment

Payroll markets are among the most volatile in the protocol — ADP, initial claims, and JOLTS all feed into the final NFP print. Expect two-sided risk: surprise strength and weakness both have been heavily monetized in prior cycles.