April 2026 Payrolls Beat 150K
YES if U.S. April 2026 nonfarm payrolls increase by more than 150,000 jobs.
61% implied probability
39% implied probability
Volume
$892K
Open Interest
$234K
Traders
3,127
61%
39%
Resolution Rules
How this market will be settled
Resolution Rule
Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics initial release for April 2026 total nonfarm payrolls shows a monthly increase strictly greater than 150,000. Exactly 150,000 resolves NO.
Fallback / Invalid
Resolution based on initial release only, not revisions. If release is delayed beyond May 22, 2026, market resolves invalid.
Resolution Source
Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation — bls.gov
Trading Deadline
May 8, 2026
Market Context
Payroll markets are among the most volatile in the protocol — ADP, initial claims, and JOLTS all feed into the final NFP print. Expect two-sided risk: surprise strength and weakness both have been heavily monetized in prior cycles.
Recent Activity
Position opened
$8K on YES at 59¢
Resolution source update
Official data release confirmed
Position opened
$12K on YES at 60¢
Liquidity milestone
Market crossed 1,000 unique traders
Place Order
Market OrderConnect wallet to execute trade