MarketsEmploymentApril 2026 Payrolls Beat 150K
EmploymentTrendingEnds May 8, 2026

April 2026 Payrolls Beat 150K

YES if U.S. April 2026 nonfarm payrolls increase by more than 150,000 jobs.

YesFavored
61¢

61% implied probability

+3¢
No
39¢

39% implied probability

-3¢

Volume

$892K

Open Interest

$234K

Traders

3,127

Yes
+16¢

61%

No

39%

24h High52%
24h Low46%
Updated continuously

Resolution Rules

How this market will be settled

Resolution Rule

Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics initial release for April 2026 total nonfarm payrolls shows a monthly increase strictly greater than 150,000. Exactly 150,000 resolves NO.

Fallback / Invalid

Resolution based on initial release only, not revisions. If release is delayed beyond May 22, 2026, market resolves invalid.

Resolution Source

Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation — bls.gov

Trading Deadline

May 8, 2026

View complete resolution rules

Market Context

Employment

Payroll markets are among the most volatile in the protocol — ADP, initial claims, and JOLTS all feed into the final NFP print. Expect two-sided risk: surprise strength and weakness both have been heavily monetized in prior cycles.

Recent Activity

Position opened

$8K on YES at 59¢

12h ago

Resolution source update

Official data release confirmed

22h ago

Position opened

$12K on YES at 60¢

7h ago

Liquidity milestone

Market crossed 1,000 unique traders

1d ago