U.S. Q1 2026 GDP Negative
YES if the advance estimate of U.S. Q1 2026 real GDP growth is below 0.0%.
22% implied probability
78% implied probability
Volume
$678K
Open Interest
$234K
Traders
2,341
22%
78%
Resolution Rules
How this market will be settled
Resolution Rule
Resolves YES if the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate for Q1 2026 real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is strictly negative. Exactly 0.0% resolves NO.
Fallback / Invalid
Resolution based on advance estimate only. If release is delayed beyond May 15, 2026, market resolves invalid.
Resolution Source
Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP Release — bea.gov
Trading Deadline
Apr 30, 2026
Market Context
GDP and activity markets price the consensus of professional forecasters against incoming high-frequency indicators. Watch for nowcasts from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and NY Fed Staff Nowcast — persistent divergence from consensus tends to drift price well before the release.
Recent Activity
Position opened
$48K on NO at 76¢
Resolution source update
Official data release confirmed
Position opened
$35K on NO at 77¢
Liquidity milestone
Market crossed 1,000 unique traders
Place Order
Market OrderConnect wallet to execute trade