U.S. Q1 2026 GDP Above 1.0%
YES if the advance estimate of U.S. Q1 2026 real GDP growth exceeds 1.0% annualized.
54% implied probability
46% implied probability
Volume
$1.2M
Open Interest
$234K
Traders
3,892
54%
46%
Resolution Rules
How this market will be settled
Resolution Rule
Resolves YES if the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate for Q1 2026 real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is strictly greater than 1.0%. Exactly 1.0% resolves NO.
Fallback / Invalid
Resolution based on advance estimate only. If release is delayed beyond May 15, 2026, market resolves invalid.
Resolution Source
Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP Release — bea.gov
Trading Deadline
Apr 30, 2026
Market Context
GDP and activity markets price the consensus of professional forecasters against incoming high-frequency indicators. Watch for nowcasts from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and NY Fed Staff Nowcast — persistent divergence from consensus tends to drift price well before the release.
Recent Activity
Position opened
$12K on YES at 52¢
Resolution source update
Official data release confirmed
Position opened
$25K on YES at 53¢
Liquidity milestone
Market crossed 1,000 unique traders
Place Order
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